Hockey "Cold War" rages on

Hockey Betting Lines

08/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cold War may be a thing of the past in a political sense, but the battle between Russia and the West is still alive and well in the hockey world.

This week, representatives of the NHL and KHL, among numerous other ambassadors from international hockey leagues, gathered in Toronto for the World Hockey Summit. One hot topic was whether NHL players will be allowed to skate in the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, but another, more-pressing issue took center stage.

That topic was the ongoing battle between the world's biggest and best hockey leagues, the NHL and Russia's Kontinental Hockey League. Since the KHL was formed in 2008, the league has placed itself in direct competition with the NHL by attempting to lure players to Russia. How successful the upstart league has been in achieving that goal is up for debate, but it's clear that the KHL has at least drawn the attention of the NHL.

On the surface, the leagues appeared to be civil towards one another in Toronto this week, but just like in the Cold War, the real battles are raging behind closed doors.

Former NHL player and current KHL executive Slava Fetisov, a Hockey Hall of Famer, did his best to highlight the supposed goodwill between the warring leagues when he said, "We need the help to grow together. I think we need the relationship with the NHL. But in reality, synergy is not on at the top of the list for either sides.

NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly was more pragmatic in his assessment of current relationship between the leagues when he said, "I think, obviously, we have had some misunderstandings and disagreements and you only bridge those differences by continued dialogue. I think we have improved the level of dialogue in recent months and I hope that continues."

The real point of contention facing the leagues is that there is currently no transfer agreement in place between the NHL and KHL. Until an agreement is worked out regarding that issue, there are no rules of engagement when it comes to the KHL trying to lure players away from the NHL, or vice versa.

Up to this point, most of the NHL players who have decided to jump ship for the Russian league have been toward the end of their careers, but there is one name that keeps popping up as an example of the KHL's ability to draw talent away from North America. That player is former Nashville Predators forward Alexander Radulov, who signed a three-year deal with Salavat Yulaev Ufa of the KHL in the summer of 2008 despite having one season remaining on his contract with the Preds.

Both the NHL and the International Ice Hockey Federation condemned the signing, but without a transfer agreement in place, neither organization had any legal recourse to stop Radulov from leaving his NHL club. All the Predators could do was suspend Radulov for the 2008-09 season and lament the fact that they wasted a first-round pick on a talented player who decided his best career move was to play professionally in his home country.

Two years later, Radulov's exodus seems like an isolated incident but there are still no rules in place that could prevent another player from making the same decision. The very real possibility that a young player will simply pull ups takes and leave for the KHL has struck fear in the hearts of NHL general managers and possibly has led to only four Russian players being selected in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft over the last two years. After Radulov, a key question regarding any Russian prospect has been the player's desire to play in North America, something that is not as easy to gauge as whether or not a guy has the skill to be a success in the NHL.

As with the aforementioned issue regarding NHLers playing in the 2014 Olympics, the transfer agreement problem will not be solved before the NHL's current collective bargaining agreement expires on September 15, 2012 and there is a distinct possibility that the controversy will linger on even after a new CBA is agreed upon. After all, the KHL is a separate entity and doesn't have to bow to the NHL demands.

One hopes that cooler heads will eventually prevail for the sake of international hockey as a whole. While the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S. went on for over 40 years, hopefully the NHL and KHL can find a more expedient solution to their problems.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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