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03/09/2010 - Sioux Falls, SD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The IUPUI Jaguars and the Oakland Golden Grizzlies will battle tonight in the championship game of the Summit League Tournament. The prize for the winner is an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
IUPUI, the tournament's second seed, beat seventh-seeded Western Illinois in the quarterfinal round and third-seeded Oral Roberts by a 69-65 final in yesterday's semifinals. The Jaguars are now riding a six-game win streak, and their only previous league title came back in 2003. They have lost in the championship game twice since capturing the crown.
Top-seeded Oakland knocked off eighth-seeded UMKC on Saturday before besting fifth-seeded IPFW, 71-58, yesterday. The Golden Grizzlies won their only conference crown in 2005, and they have also lost two championship games since tasting victory. Last season, they dropped a heart-breaking 66-64 decision to North Dakota State in the final. Oakland is riding a 10-game win streak, even more impressive than IUPUI's current run.
IUPUI and Oakland split a pair of meetings during the regular season, and the Golden Grizzlies own a 19-14 advantage in the all-time series.
There is a tremendous trio of players on the IUPUI roster, and Robert Glenn leads the group with 19.6 ppg behind 58.9 percent shooting from the floor. In addition to his scoring ability, Glenn leads the team with 6.4 rpg and 45 blocks. Alex Young checks in with 18.4 ppg, and Leroy Nobles provides 13.3 ppg on the strength of his 43.6 percent shooting from three-point range. The Jaguars are scoring 75.0 ppg while allowing 67.0 ppg to opponents. In the four-point win over Oral Roberts yesterday, Glenn tallied 18 points, Nobles scored 17 and Young added 16, as all three players performed well under pressure. IUPUI connected on 56.3 percent of its field goal attempts, the most obvious key to victory.
There are four double-digit scorers in the fold for Oakland, but center Keith Benson is clearly the best player on the roster. Benson is scoring 17.3 ppg on 54 percent shooting from the floor, and he is ripping down 10.3 rpg to go along with a block total of 110. Johnathon Jones provides 12.7 ppg for the Golden Grizzlies, and he has handed out a stellar total of 212 assists to complement his 60 steals. Derrick Nelson (11.7 ppg) and Larry Wright (11.0 ppg) round out the group for Oakland, which is posting 76.8 ppg while holding foes to 71.2 ppg. Blake Cushingberry came through with a huge performance for the Golden Grizzlies against IPFW, as the starting guard finished with 23 points. Benson posted 17 points, 17 rebounds and six blocks in that tilt, and Oakland held the Mastodons to 37.5 percent shooting from the floor.
<< North Texas takes on Troy in Sun Belt title tilt
Hot Springs, AR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The top-seeded Troy Trojans and the second-
seeded North Texas Mean Green have advanced to the championship game of the
2010 Sun Belt Conference Tournament, and they will compete for an automatic
bid to the "B
<< Surging Bucks host Allen, Celtics
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sweet-stroking veteran Ray Allen has already recorded his
20,000th career point and will add to that mark tonight, when the Boston
Celtics hit the road to Milwaukee for a showdown with the Bucks.
On Sunday, Allen hit a go-
<< Sixers, Pacers clash in Indy
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia 76ers finally got off the schneid with a
big win at Toronto this weekend, and hope that carries over into Tuesday's
road bout against the Indiana Pacers at Conseco Fieldhouse.
Philadelphia was able to snap
<< Streaking Magic hope to make Clippers disappear
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The acquisition of Vince Carter has paid off so far for
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tonight versus the Los Angeles Clippers in the second test of a three-game
homestand at Amw
Bruins hope to bolster playoff chances vs. Maple Leafs >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Boston Bruins will try to bolster their playoff hopes
when they visit the last-place Toronto Maple Leafs for tonight's clash between
Original Six clubs at Air Canada Centre.
The Bruins are currently holding onto the ei
2010 Big West Conference Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 35th annual Big West Conference
Tournament will once again take place at the Anaheim Convention Center Arena
for a tenth straight season. The bottom four seeds of the eight-team field
will take part in fi
2010 Pac-10 Conference Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nine team will converge on the Staples
Center in Los Angeles to compete for the Pac-10 Conference Tournament
championship beginning on Wednesday, March 10th.
The only member of the league that isn't compet
2010 Mountain West Conference Tournament Preview >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It is the usual suspects that are destined
to do the most damage in Las Vegas this week, as the members of the Mountain
West Conference descend on the Thomas & Mack Center for the 11th annual
conference t
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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